FDX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FDX - FedEx Corporation
$341.76
-2.21 (-0.64%)
▼
5d:
-3.94%
30d:
-11.69%
90d:
+15.33%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 23, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FDX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: FDX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$527.04
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$327.25
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FDX is currently trading at $341.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $353.16 to $382.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $342.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $402.39 (+17.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FDX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $342.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $402.39 (+17.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$353.16 -
$382.65
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($402.39)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$353.16 -
$382.65
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$342.17
Resistance Level
$383.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.32
Wall Street Target
$402.39
(+17.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.3%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.3 vs 15.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$340.39
(0%)
2-Year Target
$339.03
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$337.68
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→16)
$341.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.7%)
$733.43
(+115%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.3, Growth: 13.7%)
$502.75
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 13.7%)
$427.33
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.84 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.09
Bull Case
$484.62
(+36%)
Analyst growth 22.8%, PE expands to 21.8
Base Case
$440.57
(+24%)
Market implied 22.8%, PE stable at 19.8
Bear Case
$244.02
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.3 to 15.5
Stabilization Target:
$345.77
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 11:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:57 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FDX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2026-01-29
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SELL
2026-01-22
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BUY
2026-01-09
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