ZTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZTO - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$23.87
-0.80 (-3.24%)
▼
5d:
-5.73%
30d:
-4.82%
90d:
-2.41%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ZTO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ZTO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.89
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.15
1.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZTO is currently trading at $23.87, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.71 to $25.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.6) compared to its historical average (1.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.01 (+21.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $23.53. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.01 (+21.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.71 -
$25.55
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 21.5% below Wall St target ($29.01)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.7% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.71 -
$25.55
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.53
Resistance Level
$25.91
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.61
Wall Street Target
$29.01
(+21.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Profit Margin
18.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.6 vs 1.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.06
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$22.27
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$21.52
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$24.01
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 11.8%)
$455.50
(+1808%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.6, Growth: 11.8%)
$33.34
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.4, Growth: 11.8%)
$28.34
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.37 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.65
Bull Case
$52.17
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.8
Base Case
$47.43
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.4
Bear Case
$16.13
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.6 to 1.8
Stabilization Target:
$26.63
(+11.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 7:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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