FMS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMS - Fresenius Medical Care AG
$21.47
0.08 (0.37%)
▲
5d:
-0.83%
30d:
-6.0%
90d:
-12.22%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FMS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FMS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.77
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.42
24.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMS is currently trading at $21.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.86 to $23.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.4) is in line with its historical norms (7.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.02, while resistance sits at $22.83.
Market Sentiment: FMS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.23 (+26.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMS is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $20.02, while resistance sits at $22.83.
Market Sentiment: FMS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.23 (+26.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$21.86 -
$23.35
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.8% below Wall St target ($27.23)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.86 -
$23.35
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.02
Resistance Level
$22.83
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.39
Wall Street Target
$27.23
(+26.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.1%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.4 vs 7.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.87
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$20.28
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$19.72
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$21.58
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 37.2%)
$191.17
(+790%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.4, Growth: 37.2%)
$55.46
(+158%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 37.2%)
$47.14
(+120%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.93
Bull Case
$41.25
(+92%)
Analyst growth 74.0%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$37.50
(+75%)
Market implied 74.0%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$14.66
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.4 to 7.0
Stabilization Target:
$23.50
(+9.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 11:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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