FMS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FMS - Fresenius Medical Care AG
$23.53
0.67 (2.93%)
▲
5d:
+1.2%
30d:
+14.5%
90d:
+5.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FMS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FMS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.41
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.20
16.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FMS is currently trading at $23.53, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.57 to $23.47. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.0) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FMS is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $22.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.57 -
$23.47
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
49.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($25.45)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with -5.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.57 -
$23.47
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.55
Resistance Level
$22.50
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.96
Wall Street Target
$25.45
(+8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.1%
Profit Margin
4.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
7.0 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.62
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$23.72
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$23.81
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.60
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 32.3%)
$170.45
(+624%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.0, Growth: 32.3%)
$54.49
(+132%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 32.3%)
$46.31
(+97%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.86
Bull Case
$45.69
(+94%)
Analyst growth 81.7%, PE expands to 13.5
Base Case
$41.54
(+77%)
Market implied 81.7%, PE stable at 12.3
Bear Case
$15.54
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 2:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FMS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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