FND Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FND - Floor & Decor Holdings, Inc.
$51.73
0.21 (0.41%)
▲
5d:
+2.29%
30d:
-1.58%
90d:
-25.44%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FND shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FND shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.86
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.69
1.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FND is currently trading at $51.73, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $48.76 to $52.65. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.7) compared to its historical average (27.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FND has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FND is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $52.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: FND has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$48.76 -
$52.65
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($54.55)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$48.76 -
$52.65
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.53
Resistance Level
$52.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.70
Wall Street Target
$54.55
(+5.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-0.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.2%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.7 vs 27.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.35
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$47.08
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$44.91
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→27)
$51.73
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.7, Growth: 14.6%)
$77.85
(+51%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 14.6%)
$72.06
(+39%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 14.6%)
$61.25
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.84
Bull Case
$67.21
(+30%)
Analyst growth 18.6%, PE expands to 30.8
Base Case
$61.10
(+18%)
Market implied 18.6%, PE stable at 28.0
Bear Case
$35.03
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.7 to 27.3
Stabilization Target:
$59.58
(+15.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 11, 2026 9:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FND showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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