FNV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FNV - Franco-Nevada Corporation
$234.36
-27.41 (-10.47%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 09, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
FNV is down 8.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $230 2026-04-17 with 743 OI. Call ratio: 81% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FNV is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: FNV is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$374.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$232.59
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FNV is currently trading at $234.36, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $213.38 to $252.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 34.0) compared to its historical average (30.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FNV is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $232.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: FNV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FNV is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $232.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: FNV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$213.38 -
$252.64
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FNV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-10.5%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($257.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.4% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$213.38 -
$252.64
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$232.07
Resistance Level
$273.56
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
34.02
Wall Street Target
$257.25
(-1.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
77.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
88.6%
Profit Margin
60.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.4% premium
PE vs Historical
34.0 vs 30.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$270.67
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$279.87
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$289.39
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 34→31)
PE COMPRESSION
$261.14
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 34.0, Growth: 43.0%)
$765.90
(+193%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 43.0%)
$502.03
(+92%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 43.0%)
$426.73
(+63%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 33.78 | Forward EPS (Implied): $6.94
Bull Case
$282.99
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 35.5
Base Case
$234.36
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.8
Bear Case
$179.29
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 30.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 4:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:31 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FNV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced FNV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's FNV price and gamma walls.
