FSLR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FSLR - First Solar, Inc.
$224.57
-7.51 (-3.24%)
▼
5d:
-9.68%
30d:
-27.79%
90d:
+12.61%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
25d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: FSLR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: FSLR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$456.93
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$283.72
20.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FSLR is currently trading at $224.57, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $241.30 to $294.22. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.7) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 65.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $219.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $247.30 (+10.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FSLR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $219.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $247.30 (+10.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$241.30 -
$294.22
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding FSLR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($247.30)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.7% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$241.30 -
$294.22
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$219.02
Resistance Level
$266.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.67
Wall Street Target
$247.30
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
65.1%
Profit Margin
30.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.7 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$221.65
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$218.77
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$215.93
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$225.61
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 33.6%)
$1206.71
(+437%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.7, Growth: 33.6%)
$535.57
(+139%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 33.6%)
$455.24
(+103%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $15.48
Bull Case
$383.12
(+71%)
Analyst growth 50.1%, PE expands to 16.5
Base Case
$348.29
(+55%)
Market implied 50.1%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$157.81
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.7 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$234.64
(+4.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 1:02 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:02 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FSLR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kuntal Kumar Verma
SELL
573 shares
2026-04-15
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Alexander R Bradley
SELL
14106 shares
2026-03-17
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