GPK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GPK - Graphic Packaging Holding Company
$14.65
0.10 (0.69%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GPK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GPK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$14.27
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.86
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GPK is currently trading at $14.65, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.91 to $15.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.2) is in line with its historical norms (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.19, while resistance sits at $15.62.
Market Sentiment: GPK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.17 (+18.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GPK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $14.19, while resistance sits at $15.62.
Market Sentiment: GPK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.17 (+18.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$14.91 -
$15.57
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding GPK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.17)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-5.2%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$14.91 -
$15.57
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.19
Resistance Level
$15.62
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.21
Wall Street Target
$17.17
(+18.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.7%
Profit Margin
5.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 8.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.48
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$14.40
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$14.33
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→8)
$14.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -5.1%)
$33.83
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: -5.1%)
$12.45
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: -5.1%)
$10.59
(-27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.69
Bull Case
$17.12
(+17%)
Analyst growth 4.9%, PE expands to 9.7
Base Case
$15.56
(+6%)
Market implied 4.9%, PE stable at 8.8
Bear Case
$10.09
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$14.71
(+1.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.1%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GPK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-09-11
Joseph P Yost
SELL
30000 shares
2025-08-25
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-08-13
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Advanced GPK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's GPK price and gamma walls.
