HCA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCA - HCA Healthcare, Inc.
$432.70
5.16 (1.21%)
▲
5d:
+0.86%
30d:
-11.44%
90d:
-19.15%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 24, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
HCA is down 8.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $540 2026-06-18 with 373 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HCA trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$702.82
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$436.40
0.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCA is currently trading at $432.70, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $430.51 to $489.30. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (15.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $420.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $513.10 (+18.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCA is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $420.76. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $513.10 (+18.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$430.51 -
$489.30
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($513.10)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$430.51 -
$489.30
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$420.76
Resistance Level
$441.65
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.05
Wall Street Target
$513.10
(+18.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.9%
Profit Margin
8.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 15.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$411.06
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$390.51
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$370.99
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$432.04
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 9.8%)
$967.13
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 9.8%)
$572.73
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 9.8%)
$486.82
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.73 | Current EPS (TTM): $29.03
Bull Case
$537.07
(+24%)
Analyst growth 14.2%, PE expands to 16.2
Base Case
$488.25
(+13%)
Market implied 14.2%, PE stable at 14.7
Bear Case
$290.73
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 15.2
Stabilization Target:
$503.91
(+16.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 11:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Michael R Mcalevey
SELL
1694 shares
2026-02-18
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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Advanced HCA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HCA price and gamma walls.
