HCC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCC - Warrior Met Coal, Inc.
$85.14
-0.73 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
-0.85%
30d:
-0.79%
90d:
-1.32%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
HCC is down 3.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $110 2026-07-17 with 5,523 OI. Call ratio: 99% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HCC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.27
Based on 0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.33
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCC is currently trading at $85.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.65 to $89.51. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.4) is in line with its historical norms (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HCC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.83 (+23.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $83.35. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HCC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $104.83 (+23.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$85.65 -
$89.51
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.1% below Wall St target ($104.83)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.65 -
$89.51
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.54
(7.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$83.35
Resistance Level
$90.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.45
Wall Street Target
$104.83
(+23.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
54.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1918.0%
Profit Margin
9.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.2% premium
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$86.16
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$87.20
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$88.24
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$85.54
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -3.1%)
$149.25
(+75%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: -3.1%)
$77.44
(-9%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.7, Growth: -3.1%)
$65.83
(-23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.61
Bull Case
$188.91
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 36.2
Base Case
$171.74
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 32.9
Bear Case
$58.39
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:17 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:17 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:17 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kelli K Gant
SELL
10000 shares
2026-01-12
Walter J Scheller
SELL
100000 shares
2026-01-12
Advanced HCC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HCC price and gamma walls.
