HCM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HCM - HUTCHMED (China) Limited American Depositary Shares
$11.95
-0.56 (-4.48%)
▼
5d:
-7.15%
30d:
-24.08%
90d:
-19.64%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HCM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HCM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.29
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.70
23.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HCM is currently trading at $11.95, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.81 to $14.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 23.0) compared to its historical average (32.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.85 (+91.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HCM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $12.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.85 (+91.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$12.81 -
$14.99
Company Quality Score
44/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 91.3% below Wall St target ($22.85)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.81 -
$14.99
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.00
Resistance Level
$13.55
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.00
Wall Street Target
$22.85
(+91.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-16.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.1%
Profit Margin
83.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
23.0 vs 32.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.75
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$9.68
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$8.71
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→33)
$12.46
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.0, Growth: 35.3%)
$29.57
(+147%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 35.3%)
$28.41
(+138%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 35.3%)
$24.14
(+102%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.65
Bull Case
$6.88
(-42%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 5.2
Base Case
$6.26
(-48%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 4.7
Bear Case
$8.51
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 23.0 to 32.9
Stabilization Target:
$17.09
(+43.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+43.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 6:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HCM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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