HGV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HGV - Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock
$46.63
1.77 (3.95%)
▲
5d:
+1.28%
30d:
-4.88%
90d:
-2.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HGV appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.0% annual earnings decline despite 187% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HGV appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.0% annual earnings decline despite 187% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.99
Based on 5.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.18
1.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HGV is currently trading at $46.63, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $45.03 to $47.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.5) compared to its historical average (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 187.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $44.05, while resistance sits at $49.94. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.60 (+26.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HGV is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $44.05, while resistance sits at $49.94. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.60 (+26.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$45.03 -
$47.95
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.2% below Wall St target ($56.60)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$45.03 -
$47.95
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.05
Resistance Level
$49.94
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.49
Wall Street Target
$56.60
(+26.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
187.2%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 9.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$41.27
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$37.97
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$34.93
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→10)
$44.76
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 7.5%)
$163.95
(+266%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 7.5%)
$55.66
(+24%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 7.5%)
$47.31
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (25x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.51 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.85
Bull Case
$99.77
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 27.0
Base Case
$90.70
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 24.5
Bear Case
$30.84
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.5 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$57.48
(+28.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 3:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:24 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is HGV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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