Is HLI stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, HLI is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: HLI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of HLI stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for HLI to be between $175.42 and $187.31. The current price is $168.32.

What is the analyst price target for HLI?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for HLI is $208.25. This implies a potential upside of 23.4% from current levels.

HLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

HLI - Houlihan Lokey, Inc.

INVESTMENT ADVICE

$168.32

-0.49 (-0.29%) ▼

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Last Updated: January 30, 2026

Earnings: Jan 28, 2026 0d

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HLI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 11.6%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$305.27

Based on 7.8% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$189.55

11.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.7x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: HLI is currently trading at $168.32, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $175.42 to $187.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.1) compared to its historical average (23.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $166.57. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (11th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $208.25 (+23.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Fair Price Range $175.42 - $187.31

Company Quality Score 57/100 (HOLD)

Options IV Signal 11th percentile (COMPLACENCY WARNING)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 83.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 11th percentile)
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 23.4% below Wall St target ($208.25)
CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.6% 5-day decline

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $175.42 - $187.31

Current vs Fair Value OVERSOLD

Expected Move (7 Days) ±$5.98 (3.6%)

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $166.57

Resistance Level $195.06

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 19.05

Wall Street Target $208.25 (+23.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 14.7%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 19.0%

Profit Margin 16.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -7.0% cheaper

PE vs Historical 19.1 vs 23.7 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -7.0% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $156.99 (-7%)

2-Year Target $146.00 (-14%)

3-Year Target $135.78 (-20%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 19→24) $168.93 (+0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.6%) $274.83 (+63%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.0, Growth: 11.6%) $234.77 (+39%)

Bear: (PE: 16.2, Growth: 11.6%) $199.55 (+18%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 29.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.19

Bull Case $284.30 (+69%)

Analyst growth 43.2%, PE expands to 32.1

Base Case $258.45 (+54%)

Market implied 43.2%, PE stable at 29.2

Bear Case $122.76 (-27%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.0 to 23.7

Stabilization Target: $210.02 (+24.4%)

PE Expansion Potential: +24.4%

Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:59 PM

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Technical Signals Check

Is HLI showing a specific setup today?

RSI Divergence Check TTM Squeeze Check MACD Crossover Check Gamma Walls Check Unusual Activity Check

Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Irwin Gold SELL 6811 shares 2025-09-16

Christopher M Crain SELL 500 shares 2025-09-02

Paul Eric Siegert SELL 40000 shares 2025-08-27

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Advanced HLI Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HLI price and gamma walls.

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