HLI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLI - Houlihan Lokey, Inc.
$141.03
-2.59 (-1.80%)
▼
5d:
-0.6%
30d:
-13.0%
90d:
-19.8%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Get Alerted When HLI Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.0% annual earnings decline despite 22% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HLI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -8.0% annual earnings decline despite 22% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$256.28
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$159.13
11.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLI is currently trading at $141.03, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $138.08 to $159.48. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.1) compared to its historical average (20.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $134.41, while resistance sits at $145.65.
Market Sentiment: HLI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $198.12 (+40.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $134.41, while resistance sits at $145.65.
Market Sentiment: HLI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (15th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $198.12 (+40.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$138.08 -
$159.48
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
15th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
92.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 15th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.5% below Wall St target ($198.12)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$138.08 -
$159.48
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.91
(3.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$134.41
Resistance Level
$145.65
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.07
Wall Street Target
$198.13
(+40.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.3%
Profit Margin
16.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 20.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$129.75
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$119.37
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$109.82
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→21)
$140.79
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 10.5%)
$265.04
(+88%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 10.5%)
$190.54
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 10.5%)
$161.96
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 21.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.52
Bull Case
$206.59
(+47%)
Analyst growth 34.6%, PE expands to 23.5
Base Case
$187.81
(+34%)
Market implied 34.6%, PE stable at 21.4
Bear Case
$94.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 18.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 20.6
Stabilization Target:
$180.81
(+28.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 4:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is HLI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-13
Robert A Schriesheim
SELL
5000 shares
2026-02-06
Christopher M Crain
SELL
500 shares
2026-01-02
Top Rated Capital Markets Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Capital Markets by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
SCHW
Charles Schwab Corp |
STRONG BUY
21 analysts |
$120 | 59 HOLD |
|
HOOD
Robinhood Markets Inc |
BUY
21 analysts |
$125 | 60 HOLD |
|
RIOT
Riot Blockchain Inc |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$26 | 53 HOLD |
|
FUTU
Futu Holdings Ltd |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$231 | 54 HOLD |
|
HUT
Hut 8 Corp. Common Stock |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$72 | 40 HOLD |
