HOG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc.
$19.44
-0.03 (-0.15%)
▼
5d:
+9.27%
30d:
+8.0%
90d:
-7.43%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HOG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HOG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$32.09
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.92
2.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOG is currently trading at $19.44, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.77 to $19.43. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.7) compared to its historical average (10.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HOG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.79. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HOG has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $22.00 (+13.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$17.77 -
$19.43
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($22.00)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.6% growth expectation is conservative given 241% recent growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.77 -
$19.43
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.09
Resistance Level
$19.79
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.74
Wall Street Target
$22.00
(+13.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-27.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
240.7%
Profit Margin
7.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.6% premium
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 10.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.53
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$21.68
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$22.89
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$19.40
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 461.7%)
$115.08
(+492%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 461.7%)
$65.61
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 461.7%)
$55.61
(+186%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.32 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.78
Bull Case
$10.61
(-40%)
Analyst growth -45.1%, PE expands to 7.0
Base Case
$9.65
(-46%)
Market implied -45.1%, PE stable at 6.3
Bear Case
$11.95
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
2
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Rafeh Masood
BUY
2775 shares
2026-02-27
James D Farley Jr
SELL
6454 shares
2026-02-25
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-01-23
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