HSY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HSY - The Hershey Company
$182.14
3.47 (1.94%)
▲
5d:
+3.09%
30d:
-1.06%
90d:
-10.23%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.1/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HSY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.5% annual earnings decline despite 94% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HSY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.5% annual earnings decline despite 94% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$369.47
Based on 10.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$229.41
20.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HSY is currently trading at $182.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $175.20 to $188.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 18.4) compared to its historical average (22.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 93.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $173.75, while resistance sits at $200.00.
Market Sentiment: HSY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $215.95 (+18.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HSY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $173.75, while resistance sits at $200.00.
Market Sentiment: HSY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $215.95 (+18.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$175.20 -
$188.52
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($215.95)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$175.20 -
$188.52
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$173.75
Resistance Level
$200.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.40
Wall Street Target
$215.95
(+18.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
93.6%
Profit Margin
9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.4 vs 22.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$170.30
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$159.23
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$148.88
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→23)
$182.10
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.5%)
$349.56
(+92%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.4, Growth: 17.5%)
$295.23
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.6, Growth: 17.5%)
$250.95
(+38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 33.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.38
Bull Case
$361.71
(+99%)
Analyst growth 84.0%, PE expands to 36.5
Base Case
$328.83
(+81%)
Market implied 84.0%, PE stable at 33.2
Bear Case
$121.50
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 28.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.4 to 22.5
Stabilization Target:
$222.78
(+22.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 2:47 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:47 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HSY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-04-20
Steven E Voskuil
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-18
Jason Reiman
SELL
2000 shares
2026-02-24
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