HTGC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HTGC - Hercules Capital, Inc.
$18.53
-0.15 (-0.80%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HTGC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HTGC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$22.89
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.21
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HTGC is currently trading at $18.53, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.48 to $18.84. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.2) is in line with its historical norms (9.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTGC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $18.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.92 (+12.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HTGC is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $18.34. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.92 (+12.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$18.48 -
$18.84
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($20.92)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.48 -
$18.84
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.34
Resistance Level
$18.97
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.23
Wall Street Target
$20.92
(+12.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.6%
Profit Margin
60.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
9.2 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.75
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$18.83
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$18.91
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.64
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 4.9%)
$52.15
(+179%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.2, Growth: 4.9%)
$21.59
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.8, Growth: 4.9%)
$18.35
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.74
Bull Case
$23.71
(+28%)
Analyst growth 16.3%, PE expands to 11.7
Base Case
$21.55
(+16%)
Market implied 16.3%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$12.60
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:55 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HTGC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
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Advanced HTGC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's HTGC price and gamma walls.
