ARCC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARCC - Ares Capital Corporation
$18.94
0.16 (0.85%)
▲
5d:
-0.11%
30d:
-0.16%
90d:
-2.72%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARCC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ARCC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.81
Based on -3.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARCC is currently trading at $18.94, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.39 to $19.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.8) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.85 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARCC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.58. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.85 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$18.39 -
$19.14
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($20.85)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$18.39 -
$19.14
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.58
Resistance Level
$19.46
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.84
Wall Street Target
$20.85
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.1%
Profit Margin
37.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.85
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$18.75
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$18.66
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$18.96
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: -11.4%)
$42.27
(+123%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: -11.4%)
$18.88
(0%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: -11.4%)
$16.04
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.52 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.63
Bull Case
$24.39
(+29%)
Analyst growth 18.1%, PE expands to 12.7
Base Case
$22.17
(+17%)
Market implied 18.1%, PE stable at 11.5
Bear Case
$12.77
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.8 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$19.24
(+1.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 10:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARCC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Scott C Lem
BUY
5186 shares
2026-02-06
Michael Kort Schnabel
BUY
12500 shares
2026-02-05
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