IRDM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
IRDM - Iridium Communications Inc.
$19.92
-0.98 (-4.69%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
11d
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2 traders called IRDM this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: IRDM trades at premium valuation expecting 4.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: IRDM trades at premium valuation expecting 4.9% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.09
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$14.96
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: IRDM is currently trading at $19.92, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.68 to $20.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 18.0) compared to its historical average (15.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IRDM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.07, while resistance sits at $22.18. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: IRDM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.12 (+34.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, IRDM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $18.07, while resistance sits at $22.18. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: IRDM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.12 (+34.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$17.68 -
$20.53
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding IRDM? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 34.6% below Wall St target ($28.12)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.9% growth which is achievable
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.5% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$17.68 -
$20.53
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.07
Resistance Level
$22.18
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.02
Wall Street Target
$28.13
(+34.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
68.1%
Profit Margin
14.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.9% premium
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 15.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.92
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$23.00
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$24.13
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.89
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 7.8%)
$32.41
(+55%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 7.8%)
$26.19
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 7.8%)
$22.26
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.13
Bull Case
$23.93
(+20%)
Analyst growth 2.7%, PE expands to 20.6
Base Case
$21.75
(+9%)
Market implied 2.7%, PE stable at 18.8
Bear Case
$14.41
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 3:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is IRDM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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