TMUS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TMUS - T-Mobile US, Inc.
$188.19
-2.09 (-1.10%)
▼
5d:
-3.09%
30d:
-1.05%
90d:
-12.34%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
TMUS is down 3.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $200 2026-06-18 with 9,508 OI. Call ratio: 71% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMUS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TMUS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$421.97
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$262.01
28.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TMUS is currently trading at $188.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $189.60 to $197.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.9) compared to its historical average (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMUS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $188.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $262.63 (+39.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TMUS is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $188.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $262.63 (+39.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$189.60 -
$197.67
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.6% below Wall St target ($262.63)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$189.60 -
$197.67
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$188.22
Resistance Level
$198.28
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.90
Wall Street Target
$262.63
(+39.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-12.0%
Profit Margin
11.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.9 vs 16.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$179.72
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$171.63
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$163.91
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$188.73
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 28.9%)
$639.71
(+240%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.9, Growth: 28.9%)
$403.32
(+114%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.8, Growth: 28.9%)
$342.82
(+82%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.42
Bull Case
$300.92
(+60%)
Analyst growth 43.8%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$273.57
(+45%)
Market implied 43.8%, PE stable at 20.2
Bear Case
$129.39
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.9 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$216.69
(+15.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:01 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:01 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TMUS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
5
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Srikant M Datar
SELL
3291 shares
2026-03-04
G Michael Sievert
SELL
1089 shares
2026-02-24
Mark Wolfe Nelson
SELL
2329 shares
2026-02-24
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Advanced TMUS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TMUS price and gamma walls.
