KMX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KMX - CarMax Inc.
$44.54
-0.99 (-2.17%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 14, 2026
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2 traders called KMX this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KMX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KMX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$36.29
Based on 0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.53
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KMX is currently trading at $44.54, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.05 to $47.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.4) compared to its historical average (13.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $39.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KMX is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.28. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $39.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$40.05 -
$47.35
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 14.3% above Wall St target ($39.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.8% growth with -6.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$40.05 -
$47.35
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.28
Resistance Level
$49.89
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.43
Wall Street Target
$39.00
(-14.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.2%
Profit Margin
1.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.8% premium
PE vs Historical
17.4 vs 13.5
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.54
(+9%)
2-Year Target
$53.90
(+18%)
3-Year Target
$58.64
(+29%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$45.42
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -2.8%)
$53.55
(+18%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.4, Growth: -2.8%)
$41.85
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.5, Growth: -2.8%)
$32.42
(-29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.05
Bull Case
$44.25
(-1%)
Analyst growth -14.3%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$40.23
(-10%)
Market implied -14.3%, PE stable at 15.4
Bear Case
$31.93
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 10:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KMX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-08
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-08-26
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Advanced KMX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KMX price and gamma walls.
