LAD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LAD - Lithia Motors, Inc.
$274.76
1.54 (0.56%)
▲
5d:
-5.61%
30d:
+0.1%
90d:
-9.77%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
LAD is up 5.8% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $280 2026-06-18 with 456 OI. Put ratio: 83% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LAD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: LAD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$510.54
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$317.01
13.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LAD is currently trading at $274.76, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $269.76 to $288.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.8) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LAD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $269.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $371.73 (+35.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LAD is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $269.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $371.73 (+35.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$269.76 -
$288.24
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LAD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.3% below Wall St target ($371.73)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$269.76 -
$288.24
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$14.82
(5.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$269.65
Resistance Level
$297.33
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.77
Wall Street Target
$371.73
(+35.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-46.1%
Profit Margin
1.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$265.14
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$255.86
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$246.91
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$273.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 18.0%)
$1471.84
(+436%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 18.0%)
$451.94
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 18.0%)
$384.15
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.66
Bull Case
$425.74
(+55%)
Analyst growth 41.7%, PE expands to 10.5
Base Case
$387.04
(+41%)
Market implied 41.7%, PE stable at 9.5
Bear Case
$185.79
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$304.49
(+10.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 7:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LAD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Congdon Stacy Loretz
SELL
75 shares
2026-03-12
Congdon Stacy Loretz
SELL
75 shares
2025-12-12
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Advanced LAD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LAD price and gamma walls.
