LAD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LAD - Lithia Motors, Inc.
$306.23
15.93 (5.49%)
▲
5d:
+3.2%
30d:
+3.63%
90d:
+22.09%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LAD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: LAD shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$508.97
Based on 11.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$316.03
3.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LAD is currently trading at $306.23, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $289.15 to $304.67. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.5) is in line with its historical norms (7.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LAD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $304.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (8th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $370.25 (+20.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LAD is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $304.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (8th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $370.25 (+20.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$289.15 -
$304.67
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
8th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 8th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.9% below Wall St target ($370.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.3% growth with 1.0% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$289.15 -
$304.67
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$16.20
(5.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$284.40
Resistance Level
$304.62
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.50
Wall Street Target
$370.25
(+20.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-46.1%
Profit Margin
1.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 7.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$307.15
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$308.07
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$308.99
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$304.96
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 18.2%)
$1469.72
(+380%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.5, Growth: 18.2%)
$505.96
(+65%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 18.2%)
$430.06
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $28.65
Bull Case
$455.22
(+49%)
Analyst growth 42.6%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$413.84
(+35%)
Market implied 42.6%, PE stable at 10.1
Bear Case
$197.40
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LAD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Congdon Stacy Loretz
SELL
75 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced LAD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LAD price and gamma walls.
