CVNA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CVNA - Carvana Co.
$68.60
0.73 (1.08%)
▲
5d:
+3.63%
30d:
+4.57%
90d:
+9.9%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
25d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CVNA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CVNA shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$62.54
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$38.83
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CVNA is currently trading at $68.60, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $64.53 to $70.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 32.7) compared to its historical average (15.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 28.7% annual earnings growth. This is a high bar to clear, indicating the stock may be priced for perfection.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVNA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $61.03, while resistance sits at $73.55.
Market Sentiment: CVNA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.10 (+34.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CVNA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $61.03, while resistance sits at $73.55.
Market Sentiment: CVNA has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.10 (+34.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$64.53 -
$70.52
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.2% below Wall St target ($92.10)
- BEARISH: Market expects 28.7% growth - appears too optimistic based on history
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$64.53 -
$70.52
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.03
Resistance Level
$73.55
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.68
Wall Street Target
$92.10
(+34.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
52.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.9%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+28.7% premium
PE vs Historical
32.7 vs 15.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+28.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$88.29
(+29%)
2-Year Target
$113.63
(+66%)
3-Year Target
$146.24
(+113%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$68.46
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 32.7, Growth: 33.6%)
$163.66
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 33.6%)
$109.06
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 33.6%)
$76.61
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (39x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (33x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.72
Bull Case
$89.40
(+30%)
Analyst growth 22.0%, PE expands to 42.6
Base Case
$81.27
(+19%)
Market implied 22.0%, PE stable at 38.7
Bear Case
$45.29
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 3:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CVNA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Thomas Taira
SELL
3770 shares
2026-04-08
Benjamin E Huston
SELL
10000 shares
2026-04-01
Mark W Jenkins
SELL
12750 shares
2026-04-01
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