KREF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KREF - KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc.
$8.28
-0.16 (-1.90%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 03, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KREF shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: KREF shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.29
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.12
18.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KREF is currently trading at $8.28, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.95 to $8.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.2% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KREF is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.99, while resistance sits at $8.62.
Market Sentiment: KREF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.15 (+20.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KREF is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $7.99, while resistance sits at $8.62.
Market Sentiment: KREF has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $10.15 (+20.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$7.95 -
$8.43
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.3% below Wall St target ($10.15)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.2% growth with 245.1% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$7.95 -
$8.43
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.99
Resistance Level
$8.62
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.01
Wall Street Target
$10.15
(+20.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
245.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-64.1%
Profit Margin
-0.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.2% premium
PE vs Historical
13.0 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.46
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$8.47
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$8.49
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$8.42
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 115.9%)
$48.82
(+478%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 115.9%)
$28.48
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 115.9%)
$24.21
(+187%)
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KREF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced KREF Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's KREF price and gamma walls.
