MD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MD - Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.
$23.48
-0.50 (-2.09%)
▼
5d:
+2.4%
30d:
+5.81%
90d:
+11.44%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: MD is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: MD is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.4% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.08
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.81
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MD is currently trading at $23.48, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.80 to $23.34. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.9) is in line with its historical norms (9.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MD is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $19.65, while resistance sits at $24.36.
Market Sentiment: MD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MD is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $19.65, while resistance sits at $24.36.
Market Sentiment: MD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.80 -
$23.34
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($23.17)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.80 -
$23.34
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.65
Resistance Level
$24.36
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.95
Wall Street Target
$23.17
(-1.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.0%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.4% premium
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 9.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.81
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$24.14
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$24.48
(+4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.37
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 3.7%)
$57.93
(+147%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 3.7%)
$26.15
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 3.7%)
$22.23
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.06
Bull Case
$30.21
(+29%)
Analyst growth 14.5%, PE expands to 12.8
Base Case
$27.47
(+17%)
Market implied 14.5%, PE stable at 11.6
Bear Case
$16.31
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 11:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark S Ordan
SELL
23000 shares
2025-12-15
Michael A Rucker
SELL
10478 shares
2025-11-17
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