MD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MD - Pediatrix Medical Group, Inc.
$26.76
0.62 (2.37%)
▲
5d:
+10.99%
30d:
+22.98%
90d:
+29.28%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MD is 7.5% above its trading range ($24.89). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: MD is 7.5% above its trading range ($24.89). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$27.36
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.99
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MD is currently trading at $26.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.05 to $24.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.3) compared to its historical average (9.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $23.17. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.71. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: MD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $23.17. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$22.05 -
$24.89
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.5% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 13.4% above Wall St target ($23.17)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 5.7% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$22.05 -
$24.89
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.16
Resistance Level
$23.71
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.34
Wall Street Target
$23.17
(-13.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
50.0%
Profit Margin
9.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.3 vs 9.6
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.29
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$29.90
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$31.60
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.75
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.7%)
$57.24
(+114%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.3, Growth: 3.7%)
$29.81
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.6, Growth: 3.7%)
$25.23
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.06
Bull Case
$32.94
(+23%)
Analyst growth 14.5%, PE expands to 14.0
Base Case
$29.94
(+12%)
Market implied 14.5%, PE stable at 12.7
Bear Case
$17.78
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 11:54 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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