MOH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOH - Molina Healthcare, Inc.
$184.99
-1.81 (-0.97%)
▼
5d:
-0.51%
30d:
+24.26%
90d:
+36.68%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
MOH is up 9.5% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $195 2026-06-18 with 1,137 OI. Put ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.1/10
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1 traders called MOH this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MOH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MOH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$283.77
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$176.20
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOH is currently trading at $184.99, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $149.84 to $191.64. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.2) compared to its historical average (19.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 8.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $177.65, while resistance sits at $200.55.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $177.65, while resistance sits at $200.55.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$149.84 -
$191.64
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($182.25)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 8.3% growth with -4.3% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$149.84 -
$191.64
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$10.83
(5.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$177.65
Resistance Level
$200.55
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.25
Wall Street Target
$182.25
(-1.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-95.0%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+8.3% premium
PE vs Historical
24.3 vs 19.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+8.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$200.34
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$216.97
(+17%)
3-Year Target
$234.98
(+27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$185.10
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.2, Growth: 47.4%)
$592.05
(+220%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 47.4%)
$538.90
(+191%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.8, Growth: 47.4%)
$458.06
(+148%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 34.60 | Forward EPS (Implied): $5.35
Bull Case
$223.38
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 36.3
Base Case
$184.99
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 34.6
Bear Case
$141.52
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 31.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2026-03-30
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2026-02-24
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Advanced MOH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's MOH price and gamma walls.
