MRCY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MRCY - Mercury Systems Inc.
$75.67
2.76 (3.79%)
▲
5d:
-3.86%
30d:
-15.39%
90d:
+2.46%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MRCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: MRCY shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.98
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.32
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MRCY is currently trading at $75.67, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.85 to $88.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 48.6) compared to its historical average (54.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $69.06, while resistance sits at $81.26. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: MRCY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.50 (+33.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MRCY is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $69.06, while resistance sits at $81.26. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: MRCY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.50 (+33.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$75.85 -
$88.36
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
69.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 33.7% below Wall St target ($97.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$75.85 -
$88.36
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$5.22
(6.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.06
Resistance Level
$81.26
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
48.64
Wall Street Target
$97.50
(+33.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.7%
Profit Margin
-3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
48.6 vs 54.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.07
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$67.33
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$64.71
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 49→55)
$72.91
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 48.6, Growth: 55.0%)
$246.07
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 55.0%)
$113.08
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 55.0%)
$96.12
(+32%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 48.6 to 54.8
Stabilization Target:
$82.15
(+12.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 01, 2026 12:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MRCY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jana Partners Management…
SELL
100899 shares
2026-03-04
Jana Partners Management…
SELL
168648 shares
2026-03-03
Jana Partners Management…
SELL
182510 shares
2026-03-02
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