NIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NIO - NIO Inc. American depositary shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$4.88
-0.14 (-2.79%)
▼
5d:
-1.41%
30d:
-14.24%
90d:
-21.79%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 01, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.2/10
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1 traders called NIO this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NIO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: NIO trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -7.4% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$12.05
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.48
34.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NIO is currently trading at $4.88, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.86 to $5.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.2) compared to its historical average (5.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NIO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.66, while resistance sits at $5.17.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.33 (+50.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NIO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.66, while resistance sits at $5.17.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.33 (+50.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$4.86 -
$5.55
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 50.1% below Wall St target ($7.33)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.86 -
$5.55
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.66
Resistance Level
$5.18
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.18
Wall Street Target
$7.33
(+50.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
112.2%
Profit Margin
-9.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.2 vs 5.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.52
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$4.18
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$3.87
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$4.91
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 171.1%)
$85.83
(+1659%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.2, Growth: 171.1%)
$16.47
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.6, Growth: 171.1%)
$14.00
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.2 to 5.3
Stabilization Target:
$6.19
(+26.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 08, 2026 5:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced NIO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's NIO price and gamma walls.
