NOV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
NOV - NOV Inc.
$21.17
0.80 (3.93%)
▲
5d:
+7.08%
30d:
+10.84%
90d:
+11.01%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: NOV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.54
10.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: NOV is currently trading at $21.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $19.34 to $20.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.6) is in line with its historical norms (15.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOV is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: NOV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, NOV is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $21.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: NOV has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$19.34 -
$20.54
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($21.15)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.9% growth with -2.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$19.34 -
$20.54
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$19.14
Resistance Level
$21.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.64
Wall Street Target
$21.15
(-0.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-73.7%
Profit Margin
1.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
16.6 vs 15.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$21.78
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$22.42
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$23.07
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$21.21
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 61.6%)
$94.92
(+348%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.6, Growth: 61.6%)
$71.45
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.1, Growth: 61.6%)
$60.73
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.64 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.98
Bull Case
$25.56
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$21.17
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.6
Bear Case
$16.20
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 10:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is NOV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Craig L Weinstock
SELL
70000 shares
2026-02-23
Joseph W Rovig
SELL
151086 shares
2026-02-23
Christian S Kendall
BUY
70000 shares
2025-11-21
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