ORI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ORI - Old Republic International Corporation
$40.39
0.78 (1.97%)
▲
5d:
+1.46%
30d:
-4.88%
90d:
-11.5%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ORI shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.84
Based on 4.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.81
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ORI is currently trading at $40.39, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.32 to $42.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.6) is in line with its historical norms (12.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 95.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ORI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ORI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $40.52. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ORI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$39.32 -
$42.32
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($42.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$39.32 -
$42.32
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.46
Resistance Level
$40.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.60
Wall Street Target
$42.50
(+5.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
95.7%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 12.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.91
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$39.43
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$38.95
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$40.31
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 5.6%)
$84.27
(+109%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 5.6%)
$47.50
(+18%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 5.6%)
$40.38
(0%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 10.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.72
Bull Case
$39.05
(+2%)
Analyst growth -6.4%, PE expands to 11.2
Base Case
$35.50
(-7%)
Market implied -6.4%, PE stable at 10.2
Bear Case
$25.78
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 12.0
Stabilization Target:
$41.80
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 04, 2026 8:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ORI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
2
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Eric Smith
BUY
1135 shares
2026-03-02
Carolyn Monroe
SELL
5526 shares
2026-02-02
Carolyn Monroe
SELL
6680 shares
2025-11-14
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