PFSI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PFSI - PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. Common Stock
$99.92
-49.78 (-33.25%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 29, 2026
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1 traders called PFSI this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PFSI is down 33.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: PFSI is down 33.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$263.81
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$163.80
39.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PFSI is currently trading at $99.92, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $129.49 to $152.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.8) compared to its historical average (8.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFSI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $93.50, while resistance sits at $160.36. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 33.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PFSI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $93.50, while resistance sits at $160.36. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 33.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$129.49 -
$152.54
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PFSI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-33.3%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($154.75)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -33.8% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$129.49 -
$152.54
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$93.50
Resistance Level
$160.36
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.83
Wall Street Target
$154.75
(+3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
159.2%
Profit Margin
18.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.2% premium
PE vs Historical
9.8 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$154.49
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$159.43
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$164.54
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$148.90
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 26.2%)
$682.84
(+356%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.8, Growth: 26.2%)
$301.15
(+101%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.4, Growth: 26.2%)
$255.98
(+71%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.30
Bull Case
$269.08
(+80%)
Analyst growth 63.7%, PE expands to 17.7
Base Case
$244.62
(+63%)
Market implied 63.7%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$101.63
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PFSI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Daniel Stanley Perotti
SELL
13110 shares
2025-10-22
David Spector
SELL
5000 shares
2025-10-06
David Spector
SELL
5000 shares
2025-09-23
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