UWMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UWMC - UWM Holdings Corporation
$2.17
-0.05 (-2.25%)
▼
5d:
+2.36%
30d:
-26.94%
90d:
-40.38%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.3/10
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1 traders called UWMC this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UWMC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -19.6% annual earnings decline despite 278% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: UWMC appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -19.6% annual earnings decline despite 278% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.11
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.03
56.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UWMC is currently trading at $2.17, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.12 to $2.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.2) compared to its historical average (8.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 19.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 277.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UWMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.75 (+118.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UWMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.44. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $4.75 (+118.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$2.12 -
$2.84
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 118.9% below Wall St target ($4.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.12 -
$2.84
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.44
Resistance Level
$3.22
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.22
Wall Street Target
$4.75
(+118.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
277.8%
Profit Margin
1.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-19.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.2 vs 8.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-19.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1.95
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$1.76
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$1.58
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→8)
$3.03
(+40%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 27.7%)
$23.33
(+975%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.2, Growth: 27.7%)
$4.52
(+108%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.6, Growth: 27.7%)
$3.84
(+77%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (7x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.40 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.30
Bull Case
$4.18
(+93%)
Analyst growth 71.3%, PE expands to 8.1
Base Case
$3.80
(+75%)
Market implied 71.3%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$1.51
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.2 to 8.1
Stabilization Target:
$4.16
(+91.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+91.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 9:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UWMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
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