PKG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PKG - Packaging Corp of America
$222.55
2.34 (1.06%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 27, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: PKG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: PKG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$305.47
Based on 6.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$189.67
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PKG is currently trading at $222.55, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $209.30 to $221.41. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.8) is in line with its historical norms (18.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PKG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $215.47, while resistance sits at $231.12.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PKG is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $215.47, while resistance sits at $231.12.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$209.30 -
$221.41
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding PKG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($228.70)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$209.30 -
$221.41
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$215.47
Resistance Level
$231.12
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.78
Wall Street Target
$228.70
(+3.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.9%
Profit Margin
10.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 18.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$217.79
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$215.39
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$213.02
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→18)
$220.40
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 8.1%)
$349.13
(+59%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 8.1%)
$278.43
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 8.1%)
$236.67
(+8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.89
Bull Case
$277.08
(+26%)
Analyst growth 12.6%, PE expands to 24.9
Base Case
$251.89
(+14%)
Market implied 12.6%, PE stable at 22.6
Bear Case
$152.06
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.8 to 18.4
Stabilization Target:
$227.83
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PKG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark W Kowlzan
SELL
25000 shares
2025-09-11
Julie Johnson
SELL
2025-08-14
Julie Johnson
BUY
2025-08-04
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