PSX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PSX - PHILLIPS 66
$143.56
-0.52 (-0.36%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PSX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PSX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$251.44
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$156.12
8.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PSX is currently trading at $143.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $131.64 to $142.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (11.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $136.79, while resistance sits at $147.96.
Market Sentiment: PSX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $136.79, while resistance sits at $147.96.
Market Sentiment: PSX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$131.64 -
$142.72
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($151.45)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.7% growth with -2.9% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$131.64 -
$142.72
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$136.79
Resistance Level
$147.96
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.06
Wall Street Target
$151.45
(+5.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-61.0%
Profit Margin
1.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 11.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$149.41
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$154.94
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$160.67
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$143.99
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 79.6%)
$830.57
(+477%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: 79.6%)
$486.27
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: 79.6%)
$413.33
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.71
Bull Case
$312.58
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.1
Base Case
$284.16
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.3
Bear Case
$96.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 7:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PSX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Vanessa Allen Sutherland
SELL
4393 shares
2025-09-26
Vanessa Allen Sutherland
SELL
4393 shares
2025-09-09
Gregory Hayes
BUY
8350 shares
2025-08-14
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