VLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLO - Valero Energy Corporation
$244.77
0.67 (0.27%)
▲
5d:
+3.56%
30d:
+4.16%
90d:
+24.31%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
VLO is down 6.4% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $270 2026-06-18 with 5,225 OI. Call ratio: 78% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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1 traders called VLO this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VLO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VLO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.85
Based on -14.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLO is currently trading at $244.77, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $233.32 to $248.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.1) compared to its historical average (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 317.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $227.25, while resistance sits at $255.51.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $227.25, while resistance sits at $255.51.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$233.32 -
$248.33
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($255.21)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$233.32 -
$248.33
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$227.25
Resistance Level
$255.51
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.09
Wall Street Target
$255.21
(+4.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
317.9%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.1 vs 14.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$234.58
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$225.43
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$216.64
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$243.36
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: -33.3%)
$299.71
(+23%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.1, Growth: -33.3%)
$177.95
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.1, Growth: -33.3%)
$151.26
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.70
Bull Case
$371.63
(+52%)
Analyst growth 36.2%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$337.84
(+38%)
Market implied 36.2%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$168.73
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.1 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$274.20
(+12.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 4:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric A Fisher
SELL
400 shares
2026-03-12
Eric A Fisher
SELL
8311 shares
2026-03-11
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-09
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Advanced VLO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VLO price and gamma walls.
