RIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RIO - Rio Tinto plc
$103.69
-5.90 (-5.38%)
▼
5d:
-1.6%
30d:
+3.99%
90d:
+5.73%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RIO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: RIO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$129.75
Based on 5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$80.56
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RIO is currently trading at $103.69, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.61 to $105.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.7) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $98.39, while resistance sits at $112.58. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: RIO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $98.39, while resistance sits at $112.58. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: RIO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$96.61 -
$105.20
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.4%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($100.01)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.7% growth with 14.6% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.61 -
$105.20
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$98.39
Resistance Level
$112.58
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.70
Wall Street Target
$100.01
(-3.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.6%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$104.42
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$105.15
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$105.88
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$104.07
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 5.9%)
$232.60
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 5.9%)
$123.31
(+19%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 5.9%)
$104.81
(+1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.08
Bull Case
$165.64
(+60%)
Analyst growth 45.8%, PE expands to 18.7
Base Case
$150.58
(+45%)
Market implied 45.8%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$70.25
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 6:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:05 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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