RIO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RIO - Rio Tinto plc
$94.42
1.07 (1.15%)
▲
5d:
-0.73%
30d:
-15.45%
90d:
-0.41%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
25d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RIO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$120.28
Based on 3.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$74.68
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RIO is currently trading at $94.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.08 to $106.93. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.6) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $98.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RIO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.64 (+11.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RIO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $98.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: RIO has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $105.64 (+11.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$96.08 -
$106.93
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($105.64)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.08 -
$106.93
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$98.43
Resistance Level
$112.21
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.62
Wall Street Target
$105.64
(+11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.6%
Profit Margin
17.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.6 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$91.97
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$89.57
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$87.25
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$94.49
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 2.6%)
$209.02
(+121%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.6, Growth: 2.6%)
$101.90
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.0, Growth: 2.6%)
$86.62
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.09
Bull Case
$149.93
(+59%)
Analyst growth 46.0%, PE expands to 16.9
Base Case
$136.30
(+44%)
Market implied 46.0%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$63.48
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.6 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$102.26
(+8.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RIO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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