RUN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
RUN - Sunrun Inc
$13.99
-0.67 (-4.57%)
▼
5d:
-4.24%
30d:
+15.62%
90d:
-26.72%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
RUN is down 4.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $15 2026-06-18 with 9,912 OI. Call ratio: 69% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.0/10
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4 traders called RUN this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: RUN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: RUN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$7.36
Based on -16.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.57
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: RUN is currently trading at $13.99, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.33 to $13.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.5) compared to its historical average (27.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 214.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.52, while resistance sits at $15.79. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: RUN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.21 (+37.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, RUN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $12.52, while resistance sits at $15.79. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: RUN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $19.21 (+37.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.33 -
$13.93
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding RUN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 37.3% below Wall St target ($19.21)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.33 -
$13.93
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.52
Resistance Level
$15.79
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.48
Wall Street Target
$19.21
(+37.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
43.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
214.4%
Profit Margin
17.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.5 vs 27.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.59
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.33
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.20
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→28)
$16.11
(+15%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -37.6%)
$12.88
(+-8%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.5, Growth: -37.6%)
$10.20
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.9, Growth: -37.6%)
$8.67
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.48 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.13
Bull Case
$7.59
(-46%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 7.1
Base Case
$6.90
(-51%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 6.5
Bear Case
$9.38
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.5 to 27.6
Stabilization Target:
$22.09
(+57.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+57.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is RUN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
20
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maria Barak
SELL
8039 shares
2026-04-09
Danny Abajian
SELL
132953 shares
2026-04-06
Jeanna Steele
SELL
76478 shares
2026-04-06
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