SHOP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
SHOP - Shopify Inc. Class A subordinate voting shares
$131.23
-12.41 (-8.64%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 10, 2026
10d
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3 traders called SHOP this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: SHOP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: SHOP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$89.95
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$55.85
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: SHOP is currently trading at $131.23, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $142.87 to $169.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 77.7) is in line with its historical norms (84.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $134.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: SHOP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $179.49 (+25.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, SHOP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $134.65. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 8.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: SHOP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $179.49 (+25.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$142.87 -
$169.45
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding SHOP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-8.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 25.0% below Wall St target ($179.49)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$142.87 -
$169.45
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$134.65
Resistance Level
$159.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
77.74
Wall Street Target
$179.49
(+25.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.8%
Profit Margin
16.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
77.7 vs 84.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$139.76
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$135.99
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$132.32
(-8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 78→84)
$143.65
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 77.7, Growth: 27.1%)
$294.77
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 27.1%)
$84.55
(-41%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 27.1%)
$71.87
(-50%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 72.99 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.97
Bull Case
$173.45
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 76.6
Base Case
$143.64
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 73.0
Bear Case
$109.88
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 65.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 77.7 to 84.4
Stabilization Target:
$155.95
(+8.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.6%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is SHOP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced SHOP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's SHOP price and gamma walls.
