ST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ST - Sensata Technologies Holding plc
$33.39
-1.40 (-4.02%)
▼
5d:
-3.47%
30d:
-10.58%
90d:
-0.57%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ST shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.79
Based on 6.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.54
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ST is currently trading at $33.39, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.67 to $36.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.4) is in line with its historical norms (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 1021.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.60 (+24.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $32.85. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $41.60 (+24.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$33.67 -
$36.92
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 24.6% below Wall St target ($41.60)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$33.67 -
$36.92
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.85
Resistance Level
$37.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.38
Wall Street Target
$41.60
(+24.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
1.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
1021.1%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 9.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.35
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$31.35
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$30.38
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$33.36
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.5%)
$116.98
(+250%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: 9.5%)
$43.85
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 9.5%)
$37.27
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 9.95 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.48
Bull Case
$41.77
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 10.5
Base Case
$34.59
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 10.0
Bear Case
$26.46
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 9.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$36.67
(+9.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 12:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Lynne J Caljouw
SELL
2496 shares
2026-02-12
Ali John Mirshekari
SELL
33933 shares
2025-11-21
Ali John Mirshekari
SELL
108438 shares
2025-11-20
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