TGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TGT - Target Corporation
$118.03
-1.81 (-1.51%)
▼
5d:
+2.69%
30d:
+3.72%
90d:
+18.56%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 20, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
TGT is down 3.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $130 2026-06-18 with 8,599 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 2.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 5.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$126.09
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$78.29
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TGT is currently trading at $118.03, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $114.47 to $119.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 15.7) compared to its historical average (13.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $121.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $121.50. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$114.47 -
$119.35
Company Quality Score
66/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($124.72)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.4% growth with -1.5% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$114.47 -
$119.35
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$112.69
Resistance Level
$121.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.68
Wall Street Target
$124.72
(+4.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-5.0%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.4% premium
PE vs Historical
15.7 vs 13.4
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$126.31
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$133.13
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$140.32
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→13)
PE COMPRESSION
$119.91
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 4.5%)
$195.61
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.7, Growth: 4.5%)
$136.94
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 4.5%)
$116.40
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.93 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.13
Bull Case
$117.11
(+2%)
Analyst growth -6.0%, PE expands to 15.3
Base Case
$106.46
(-7%)
Market implied -6.0%, PE stable at 13.9
Bear Case
$77.02
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 3:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-11-03
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-10-24
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Advanced TGT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TGT price and gamma walls.
