TGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TGT - Target Corporation
$105.47
2.63 (2.56%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 03, 2026
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8 traders called TGT this week
60% bullish • 6 bearish
60% bullish • 6 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.3% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$113.00
Based on 4.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$70.16
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TGT is currently trading at $105.47, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $98.76 to $108.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (11.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $100.88, while resistance sits at $111.75.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TGT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $100.88, while resistance sits at $111.75.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$98.76 -
$108.34
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($100.34)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.3% growth with -1.6% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$98.76 -
$108.34
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$100.88
Resistance Level
$111.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.41
Wall Street Target
$100.34
(-2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-18.4%
Profit Margin
3.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.3% premium
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 11.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$107.26
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$111.87
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$116.68
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$102.64
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.1%)
$198.60
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 5.1%)
$119.47
(+16%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 5.1%)
$101.55
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 12.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.26
Bull Case
$106.28
(+3%)
Analyst growth -7.2%, PE expands to 13.9
Base Case
$96.62
(-6%)
Market implied -7.2%, PE stable at 12.6
Bear Case
$70.79
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2025-09-29
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Dan Newhouse
BUY
2025-08-18
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TGT price and gamma walls.
