TKR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TKR - The Timken Company
$102.06
1.49 (1.48%)
▲
5d:
+0.16%
30d:
-4.24%
90d:
+18.94%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
26d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TKR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TKR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$151.32
Based on 8.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.96
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TKR is currently trading at $102.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $97.64 to $106.42. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.3) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.5% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $103.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TKR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TKR is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $103.26. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TKR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$97.64 -
$106.42
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
42th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 42th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($110.45)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.5% growth with 3.5% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$97.64 -
$106.42
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.79
(4.7%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$94.18
Resistance Level
$103.26
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.35
Wall Street Target
$110.45
(+8.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.5% premium
PE vs Historical
15.4 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$102.57
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$103.08
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$103.60
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$101.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.2%)
$215.41
(+111%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.4, Growth: 13.2%)
$147.95
(+45%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.0, Growth: 13.2%)
$125.75
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.11
Bull Case
$168.56
(+70%)
Analyst growth 60.9%, PE expands to 25.5
Base Case
$153.23
(+55%)
Market implied 60.9%, PE stable at 23.2
Bear Case
$64.77
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 7:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TKR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Richard G Kyle
SELL
19636 shares
2026-02-20
Richard G Kyle
SELL
10000 shares
2026-02-19
Richard G Kyle
SELL
15837 shares
2025-11-25
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