HLMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLMN - Hillman Solutions Corp. Common Stock
$7.21
-0.26 (-3.48%)
▼
5d:
-8.27%
30d:
-15.67%
90d:
-28.33%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 12, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HLMN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HLMN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$16.71
Based on 12.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$10.37
30.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLMN is currently trading at $7.21, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.70 to $8.80. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 10.3) compared to its historical average (13.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 209.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.12 (+68.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $7.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.12 (+68.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$7.70 -
$8.80
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 68.2% below Wall St target ($12.12)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.3% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.70 -
$8.80
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.23
Resistance Level
$8.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.30
Wall Street Target
$12.13
(+68.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
209.7%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 13.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$6.58
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$6.00
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$5.47
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→14)
$7.22
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 20.1%)
$26.78
(+272%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 20.1%)
$12.50
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 20.1%)
$10.62
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.18
Bull Case
$16.08
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 44.7
Base Case
$14.62
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 40.6
Bear Case
$4.97
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.3 to 13.6
Stabilization Target:
$9.52
(+32.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 4:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amanda Kitzberger
SELL
11804 shares
2026-03-10
Scott Kelley Moore
SELL
1451 shares
2026-03-10
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