HLMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLMN - Hillman Solutions Corp. Common Stock
$8.12
-0.02 (-0.25%)
▼
5d:
-2.4%
30d:
+11.23%
90d:
-1.58%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLMN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HLMN shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.93
Based on 12.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.89
17.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLMN is currently trading at $8.12, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.30 to $8.03. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.6) compared to its historical average (13.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 209.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLMN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+47.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $7.72. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: HLMN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+47.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$7.30 -
$8.03
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.8% below Wall St target ($12.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.30 -
$8.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.07
Resistance Level
$7.73
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.63
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+47.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
209.7%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.6 vs 13.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$7.83
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$7.55
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$7.27
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$8.13
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 20.1%)
$26.36
(+225%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.6, Growth: 20.1%)
$14.08
(+73%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.9, Growth: 20.1%)
$11.96
(+47%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (45x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 45.22 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.18
Bull Case
$17.91
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 49.7
Base Case
$16.28
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 45.2
Bear Case
$5.54
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 38.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.6 to 13.0
Stabilization Target:
$9.08
(+11.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 10:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amanda Kitzberger
SELL
11804 shares
2026-03-10
Scott Kelley Moore
SELL
1451 shares
2026-03-10
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