TOST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TOST - Toast, Inc.
$23.16
0.12 (0.52%)
▲
5d:
+0.48%
30d:
-17.05%
90d:
-7.62%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.2/10
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4 traders called TOST this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TOST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TOST shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$69.44
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.12
46.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TOST is currently trading at $23.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.02 to $29.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.6) compared to its historical average (21.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 123.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.26, while resistance sits at $26.00.
Market Sentiment: TOST has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.96 (+46.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TOST is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.26, while resistance sits at $26.00.
Market Sentiment: TOST has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $33.96 (+46.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$24.02 -
$29.32
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TOST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.6% below Wall St target ($33.96)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.02 -
$29.32
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.26
Resistance Level
$26.00
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.64
Wall Street Target
$33.96
(+46.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
21.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
123.0%
Profit Margin
6.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 21.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.84
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$18.76
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$16.88
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→21)
$25.99
(+12%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 26.5%)
$75.67
(+227%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 26.5%)
$46.93
(+103%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 26.5%)
$39.89
(+72%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.67
Bull Case
$50.62
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 37.8
Base Case
$46.02
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 34.3
Bear Case
$15.65
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 21.0
Stabilization Target:
$35.66
(+54.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+54.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 26, 2026 5:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TOST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian R Elworthy
SELL
3664 shares
2026-04-02
Aman Narang
SELL
13463 shares
2026-04-02
Stephen Fredette
SELL
7289 shares
2026-04-02
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