TRUP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TRUP - Trupanion, Inc.
$31.99
-0.18 (-0.56%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 18, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TRUP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TRUP shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$55.13
Based on 9.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$34.23
6.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TRUP is currently trading at $31.99, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $33.05 to $37.73. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 333.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRUP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $30.85, while resistance sits at $33.74.
Market Sentiment: TRUP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.75 (+60.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TRUP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $30.85, while resistance sits at $33.74.
Market Sentiment: TRUP has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.75 (+60.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$33.05 -
$37.73
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TRUP? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 60.9% below Wall St target ($51.75)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$33.05 -
$37.73
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.85
Resistance Level
$33.74
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.19
Wall Street Target
$51.75
(+60.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
333.3%
Profit Margin
1.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 9.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.04
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$29.96
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$28.91
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$32.14
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.2%)
$130.68
(+306%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 14.2%)
$47.97
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 14.2%)
$40.77
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (87x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 87.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.36
Bull Case
$69.10
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 96.0
Base Case
$62.82
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 87.3
Bear Case
$21.36
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 74.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$35.76
(+11.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.2%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TRUP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Margaret Tooth
SELL
8961 shares
2025-09-25
Darryl Rawlings
SELL
30369 shares
2025-09-04
Darryl Rawlings
SELL
19631 shares
2025-09-03
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Advanced TRUP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TRUP price and gamma walls.
