VAC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VAC - MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION
$100.25
0.37 (0.37%)
▲
5d:
+1.54%
30d:
+11.81%
90d:
+48.72%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VAC trades at premium valuation expecting 10.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: VAC trades at premium valuation expecting 10.1% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$112.07
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$69.59
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VAC is currently trading at $100.25, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $86.72 to $99.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (8.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 10.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VAC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $92.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $90.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VAC is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $92.74. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (20th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $90.00. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$86.72 -
$99.09
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
20th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VAC? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 20th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 10.2% above Wall St target ($90.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 10.1% growth with None% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$86.72 -
$99.09
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$7.09
(7.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.59
Resistance Level
$92.74
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.78
Wall Street Target
$90.00
(-10.2%)
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-56.1%
Profit Margin
-10.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+10.1% premium
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 8.8
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+10.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$110.38
(+10%)
2-Year Target
$121.52
(+21%)
3-Year Target
$133.80
(+34%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$99.91
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.9%)
$266.89
(+166%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 12.9%)
$144.41
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 12.9%)
$107.84
(+8%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 7:32 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:32 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:32 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VAC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Michael Flaskey
BUY
14862 shares
2026-03-10
John D Fitzgerald
BUY
52 shares
2026-01-07
John D Fitzgerald
BUY
13 shares
2026-01-07
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Advanced VAC Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VAC price and gamma walls.
