VLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLO - Valero Energy Corporation
$250.27
-4.05 (-1.59%)
▼
5d:
+5.43%
30d:
+22.3%
90d:
+52.59%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
29d
Smart Money Distribution
VLO is up 3.5% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $165 2026-04-17 with 5,079 OI. Put ratio: 64% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.2/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VLO is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: VLO is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.5% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$173.90
Based on -4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$107.98
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLO is currently trading at $250.27, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $208.04 to $242.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 17.1) compared to its historical average (15.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $231.20, while resistance sits at $258.43.
Market Sentiment: VLO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $220.44. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $231.20, while resistance sits at $258.43.
Market Sentiment: VLO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $220.44. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$208.04 -
$242.06
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding VLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 11.9% above Wall St target ($220.44)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.5% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$208.04 -
$242.06
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$231.20
Resistance Level
$258.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.12
Wall Street Target
$220.44
(-11.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
317.9%
Profit Margin
2.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.5% premium
PE vs Historical
17.1 vs 15.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$261.53
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$273.30
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$285.60
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→15)
PE COMPRESSION
$250.25
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: -12.7%)
$238.20
(+-5%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.1, Growth: -12.7%)
$182.45
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: -12.7%)
$155.08
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 31.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.58
Bull Case
$498.02
(+110%)
Analyst growth 88.8%, PE expands to 34.8
Base Case
$452.75
(+91%)
Market implied 88.8%, PE stable at 31.6
Bear Case
$163.10
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 9:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Eric A Fisher
SELL
400 shares
2026-03-12
Eric A Fisher
SELL
8311 shares
2026-03-11
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-09
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Advanced VLO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VLO price and gamma walls.
