VLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VLO - Valero Energy Corporation
$181.43
-1.06 (-0.58%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VLO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VLO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$218.31
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$135.56
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VLO is currently trading at $181.43, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $168.83 to $187.54. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.3) is in line with its historical norms (14.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $177.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VLO is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $177.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$168.83 -
$187.54
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($196.12)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$168.83 -
$187.54
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$177.91
Resistance Level
$194.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.33
Wall Street Target
$196.12
(+8.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
319.6%
Profit Margin
1.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 14.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$182.88
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$184.34
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$185.82
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→14)
PE COMPRESSION
$181.59
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 4.5%)
$322.21
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 4.5%)
$207.00
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 4.5%)
$175.95
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (38x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 38.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.80
Bull Case
$404.84
(+123%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 42.2
Base Case
$368.04
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 38.3
Bear Case
$125.13
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 32.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 12:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2025-08-06
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