PSX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PSX - PHILLIPS 66
$171.51
-0.31 (-0.18%)
▼
5d:
+1.9%
30d:
+6.24%
90d:
+9.76%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
PSX is down 6.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $200 2026-06-18 with 1,337 OI. Call ratio: 75% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.6/10
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1 traders called PSX this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PSX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: PSX shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$196.08
Based on 0.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$121.75
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PSX is currently trading at $171.51, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $160.11 to $175.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $165.44, while resistance sits at $181.41.
Market Sentiment: PSX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PSX is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $165.44, while resistance sits at $181.41.
Market Sentiment: PSX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$160.11 -
$175.14
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($185.58)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$160.11 -
$175.14
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$165.44
Resistance Level
$181.41
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.05
Wall Street Target
$185.58
(+8.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-56.8%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.1 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$166.84
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$162.00
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$157.30
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$172.29
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: -2.3%)
$320.05
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.0, Growth: -2.3%)
$160.42
(-7%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.4, Growth: -2.3%)
$136.36
(-21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.12
Bull Case
$291.92
(+70%)
Analyst growth 53.7%, PE expands to 18.8
Base Case
$265.38
(+55%)
Market implied 53.7%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$117.42
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.0 to 12.1
Stabilization Target:
$188.19
(+9.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 4:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:38 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PSX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin J Mitchell
SELL
15629 shares
2026-03-30
Kevin Omar Meyers
BUY
175 shares
2026-03-17
Lisa Ann Davis
SELL
3800 shares
2026-03-13
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