WMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMG - Warner Music Group Corp. Class A Common Stock
$24.86
0.76 (3.15%)
▲
5d:
+5.12%
30d:
-12.68%
90d:
-17.74%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: WMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: WMG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.4% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$53.49
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$33.21
25.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMG is currently trading at $24.86, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.68 to $28.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.7) compared to its historical average (17.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.34, while resistance sits at $27.90. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: WMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.41 (+51.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.34, while resistance sits at $27.90. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: WMG has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.41 (+51.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$24.68 -
$28.62
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 51.1% below Wall St target ($36.41)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$24.68 -
$28.62
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.34
Resistance Level
$27.90
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.69
Wall Street Target
$36.41
(+51.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-25.9%
Profit Margin
4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.7 vs 17.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.32
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$20.67
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$19.14
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→17)
$24.05
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 20.4%)
$68.72
(+185%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.7, Growth: 20.4%)
$42.08
(+75%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.6, Growth: 20.4%)
$35.77
(+48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.57
Bull Case
$52.56
(+118%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 46.1
Base Case
$47.78
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.9
Bear Case
$16.25
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.7 to 17.2
Stabilization Target:
$30.29
(+25.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 10:47 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:47 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:47 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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