WMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMT - Walmart Inc.
$119.14
1.73 (1.47%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
19d
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5 traders called WMT this week
80% bullish • 1 bearish
80% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: WMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: WMT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$110.42
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.56
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMT is currently trading at $119.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $112.39 to $118.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 39.5) is in line with its historical norms (39.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 35.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $121.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $121.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$112.39 -
$118.78
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
46.2%
Protect Your Profits
Holding WMT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($123.95)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$112.39 -
$118.78
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$115.48
Resistance Level
$121.62
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.53
Wall Street Target
$123.95
(+5.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
35.2%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
39.5 vs 39.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$117.29
(0%)
2-Year Target
$117.18
(0%)
3-Year Target
$117.06
(0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 40→40)
$117.57
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.5, Growth: 12.6%)
$167.60
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.6%)
$94.56
(-20%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 12.6%)
$80.37
(-32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (41x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (40x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 40.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.87
Bull Case
$133.13
(+13%)
Analyst growth 3.5%, PE expands to 44.8
Base Case
$121.03
(+3%)
Market implied 3.5%, PE stable at 40.8
Bear Case
$79.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 34.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 39.5 to 39.7
Stabilization Target:
$117.92
(+0.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.4%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:03 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
17
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
19416 shares
2025-10-23
Kathryn J Mclay
SELL
4000 shares
2025-10-20
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13125 shares
2025-10-16
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