WMT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMT - Walmart Inc.
$123.26
0.37 (0.30%)
▲
5d:
+2.1%
30d:
-3.67%
90d:
+10.31%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: WMT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: WMT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$109.75
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$68.14
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMT is currently trading at $123.26, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $122.09 to $126.57. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 41.4) is in line with its historical norms (41.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $118.02, while resistance sits at $127.19.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $136.02 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $118.02, while resistance sits at $127.19.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $136.02 (+10.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$122.09 -
$126.57
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($136.02)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.4% growth with 5.6% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$122.09 -
$126.57
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$118.02
Resistance Level
$127.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.44
Wall Street Target
$136.02
(+10.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-19.0%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
41.4 vs 41.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$123.38
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$123.88
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$124.37
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 41→41)
PE COMPRESSION
$123.06
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.4, Growth: 12.4%)
$174.45
(+42%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.4%)
$94.31
(-23%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 12.4%)
$80.16
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (41x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.73
Bull Case
$142.23
(+18%)
Analyst growth 8.6%, PE expands to 48.0
Base Case
$129.30
(+7%)
Market implied 8.6%, PE stable at 43.6
Bear Case
$80.93
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 3:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John D Rainey
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-02
C Douglas Mcmillon
SELL
19416 shares
2026-02-26
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-02-24
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's WMT price and gamma walls.
