AAPL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAPL - Apple Inc.
$298.87
4.07 (1.38%)
▲
5d:
+3.95%
30d:
+15.47%
90d:
+8.48%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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35 traders called AAPL this week
91% bullish • 4 bearish
91% bullish • 4 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AAPL is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AAPL is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$337.30
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$209.44
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAPL is currently trading at $298.87, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $260.60 to $285.32. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 31.1) is in line with its historical norms (29.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAPL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $300.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AAPL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAPL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $300.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AAPL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$260.60 -
$285.32
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
AAPL is technically overbought (RSI 75). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($305.28)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$260.60 -
$285.32
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$268.14
Resistance Level
$300.92
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.11
Wall Street Target
$305.28
(+2.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.8%
Profit Margin
27.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
31.1 vs 29.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$304.85
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$310.94
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$317.16
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→29)
PE COMPRESSION
$298.71
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.1, Growth: 10.1%)
$398.57
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 10.1%)
$282.37
(-6%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 10.1%)
$240.01
(-20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (31x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $8.25
Bull Case
$382.83
(+28%)
Analyst growth 16.4%, PE expands to 39.9
Base Case
$348.03
(+16%)
Market implied 16.4%, PE stable at 36.2
Bear Case
$203.23
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 10:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAPL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
9
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Timothy D Cook
SELL
64949 shares
2026-04-02
Deirdre O'brien
SELL
30002 shares
2026-04-02
Mark Alford
SELL
2026-03-16
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