ACAD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACAD - Acadia Pharmaceuticals Inc.
$25.13
-0.57 (-2.22%)
▼
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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1 traders called ACAD this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ACAD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ACAD shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$0.55
Based on -40.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$0.34
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACAD is currently trading at $25.13, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $26.24 to $27.43. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 31.6) is in line with its historical norms (32.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 112.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACAD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.84 (+20.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACAD is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.06. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.84 (+20.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$26.24 -
$27.43
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ACAD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($30.84)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.4% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$26.24 -
$27.43
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.06
Resistance Level
$27.81
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.63
Wall Street Target
$30.84
(+20.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
112.8%
Profit Margin
24.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
31.6 vs 32.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.55
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$25.39
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$25.24
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 32→32)
$25.70
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.6, Growth: -85.4%)
$25.05
(+-3%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -85.4%)
$17.66
(-31%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -85.4%)
$15.01
(-42%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 16.53 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.55
Bull Case
$14.77
(-41%)
Analyst growth -47.6%, PE expands to 18.2
Base Case
$13.43
(-47%)
Market implied -47.6%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$17.42
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 31.6 to 32.2
Stabilization Target:
$26.17
(+1.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.8%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACAD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark C Schneyer
SELL
3498 shares
2025-09-15
Elizabeth A Garofalo
SELL
1600 shares
2025-09-02
Mark C Schneyer
SELL
22000 shares
2025-08-18
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Advanced ACAD Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ACAD price and gamma walls.
