ACGL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACGL - Arch Capital Group Ltd
$95.62
2.20 (2.35%)
▲
5d:
+2.09%
30d:
-4.52%
90d:
-0.26%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
27d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ACGL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ACGL shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$133.29
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$82.76
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACGL is currently trading at $95.62, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.39 to $98.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 38.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $95.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACGL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.32 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $95.78. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ACGL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.32 (+14.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$93.39 -
$98.87
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($109.32)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$93.39 -
$98.87
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$91.43
Resistance Level
$95.78
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.46
Wall Street Target
$109.32
(+14.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
38.8%
Profit Margin
22.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$94.19
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$92.77
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$91.38
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$95.67
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 7.8%)
$283.21
(+196%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 7.8%)
$119.82
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 7.8%)
$101.85
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.96 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.60
Bull Case
$88.51
(-6%)
Analyst growth -12.8%, PE expands to 8.8
Base Case
$80.46
(-14%)
Market implied -12.8%, PE stable at 8.0
Bear Case
$62.76
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 9.9
Stabilization Target:
$100.11
(+4.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian S Posner
SELL
3000 shares
2026-03-11
David Gansberg
SELL
5907 shares
2026-03-10
Nicolas Papadopoulo
SELL
21930 shares
2026-03-10
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